By Ukumbi Afrika Friday, July 31, 2026
Cape Town—The Orange Basin, one of the world's most promising offshore petroleum provinces shared by South Africa and Namibia, is emerging as a striking example of how differing regulatory approaches can shape investment, exploration, and economic opportunity across Africa.
While Namibia continues to attract billions of dollars in oil investment and is targeting first oil production by 2030, South Africa is struggling to unlock similar offshore potential as lengthy permitting processes, environmental litigation, and regulatory uncertainty delay exploration.
The contrast has become increasingly apparent in recent weeks.
Shell announced on June 9 that a new offshore discovery in Namibia had delivered its most promising exploration results to date within Petroleum Exploration Licence 39, home to several major discoveries since the landmark Graff-1X well in 2022.
Just days earlier in South Africa, environmental organisations and fishing communities appeared before a Cape Town court seeking to overturn approval for seismic surveys by Norwegian geophysical company TGS in the South African section of the Orange Basin.
Lengthy Legal Challenges Slow Exploration
According to environmental advocacy group Green Connection, environmental organisations and coastal communities have filed multiple legal challenges against offshore oil and gas projects and proposed liquefied natural gas developments since 2021.
South Africa's Petroleum Agency (PASA) says these legal proceedings have delayed as many as 10 exploration wells that were expected to be drilled before 2030.
Energy companies warn that prolonged regulatory uncertainty is discouraging exploration investment.
TotalEnergies Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné has previously cautioned that companies cannot continue investing where permitting becomes overly complex and projects face continuous legal challenges.
Permits Take Years Instead of Months
Industry association Offshore Petroleum Association of South Africa (OPASA) estimates that securing exploration permits in South Africa can take up to five years, compared with three to nine months in several other African jurisdictions.
The lengthy approval process, involving multiple government departments and opportunities for administrative and judicial appeals, has raised concerns among investors that future discoveries could remain undeveloped for years.
TotalEnergies, which secured exploration acreage along South Africa's west coast, had planned to drill its first exploration well during 2026, although those plans are now uncertain.
Court Decision Could Reshape Industry
Attention is now focused on a Constitutional Court ruling expected later this year that could significantly influence South Africa's offshore energy future.
The case stems from a legal challenge launched against Shell's proposed seismic survey along the country's tourism-dependent Wild Coast.
Legal experts believe the judgment could establish an important precedent on how commercial development should be balanced against environmental protection and the constitutional rights of coastal communities.
Environmental lawyer Ricky Stone described the upcoming ruling as one of the most consequential environmental and constitutional decisions South Africa has faced in decades.
Government Supports Oil Development
South Africa's Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, Gwede Mantashe, continues to support offshore oil and gas development despite growing calls to accelerate renewable energy investment.
He has backed proposals for specialised courts to handle energy-related disputes more efficiently.
The country's west coast still holds considerable promise.
The Ibhubesi gas field is estimated to contain approximately 540 billion cubic feet of natural gas and around 4.3 million barrels of condensate.
However, exploration success has remained limited.
Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas drilled the Gazania-1 exploration well in 2022, discovering light oil-associated gases but not enough to justify commercial development.
Communities Remain Divided
Industry executives argue that responsible offshore drilling can coexist with environmental protection.
Eco Atlantic CEO Gil Holzman says the company's drilling activities left no lasting environmental footprint or impact on surrounding communities.
Many coastal residents remain unconvinced.
Small-scale fishermen and environmental activists fear offshore oil development could threaten marine ecosystems and undermine livelihoods that have depended on the ocean for generations.
As Namibia races ahead toward becoming Africa's next major oil producer, South Africa faces a critical decision over whether its regulatory framework can balance environmental protection with the economic opportunities presented by one of the continent's most promising energy frontiers.
Source: Reuters
Reporters: Wendell Roelf& America Hernandez
Editing: Bate Felix, Alex Lawler & Jan Harvey