By Ukumbi Afrika Thursday,30 July 2026
Africa could suffer an economic loss of between $10 billion and $20 billion as an impending "super" El Niño threatens to unleash severe droughts, floods and storms across the continent, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB).
Anthony Nyong, the AfDB's Director for Climate Change and Green Growth, told Reuters that the weather phenomenon could reduce the GDP of heavily affected African countries by 1% to 2% on average, while worsening food insecurity, damaging infrastructure and increasing pressure on already strained public finances.
"Just this event is going to reduce heavily affected countries' GDP by 1% to 2% on average, which is about $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent," Nyong said.
Scientists have warned that rising Pacific Ocean temperatures could produce one of the strongest El Niño events on record, bringing prolonged drought to parts of Southern and West Africa while triggering flooding and destructive storms elsewhere.
The AfDB had projected Africa's economy to grow 4.2% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, but those forecasts were issued before concerns intensified over a potential "super" El Niño.
Climate Finance Pressure Mounts
Nyong warned that many governments are falling into a "climate finance trap," where scarce public resources are diverted from education, healthcare and infrastructure to fund emergency disaster responses.
The previous El Niño episode between 2023 and 2024 caused devastating drought across Southern Africa and widespread flooding in East Africa, resulting in crop failures, soaring food prices and severe coastal impacts.
According to the AfDB, African farmers are already expected to lose nearly $330 million in income this year, while fisheries face declining productivity due to rising sea temperatures and extreme weather.
To strengthen resilience, the bank plans to convene a high-level seminar in September to assess the risks to its investment portfolio and identify ways to support member countries through project restructuring and access to international climate finance.
Nyong said additional funding could come from institutions such as the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund, Climate Investment Funds, and emerging loss-and-damage financing mechanisms.
Adaptation Funding Gap Widens
The United Nations estimates developing countries will require approximately $365 billion annually by 2035 to adapt to climate change, yet global public adaptation finance stood at only $26 billion in 2023.
Nyong believes Africa alone may now require up to $100 billion in adaptation funding over the next year, roughly double previous estimates because of the anticipated severity of the coming El Niño.
Risk of Mass Migration
Beyond the economic damage, the AfDB warned the climate shock could trigger widespread migration as millions of people flee drought, food shortages and collapsing livelihoods.
Countries considered particularly vulnerable include Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria.
Nyong warned that maize prices could double in many affected regions, intensifying competition for food, grazing land and water while increasing the risk of instability and conflict
He stressed that investing in climate resilience before disasters occur is significantly more cost-effective than responding after devastation has already unfolded.
"It is cheaper to build a fence around a precipice than to pay for expensive ambulances to wait at the bottom for people to fall. So let's build a fence," Nyong said.
Source: Reuters
Reporting: Simon Jessop& Marc Jones
Editing: Aurora Ellis