By Ukumbi Afrika Wednesday, July 29, 2026
The global cocoa market is expected to record a much smaller surplus in the 2026/27 season as the growing risk of a strong El Niño weather event threatens production across West Africa, commodities broker and analyst StoneX said on Wednesday.
StoneX forecasts a global cocoa surplus of 25,000 metric tons for the season beginning in October, a sharp decline from the 422,000-ton surplus projected for the current 2025/26 season.
The outlook is driven by expected production declines in the world's leading cocoa-producing nations. Ivory Coast is forecast to produce 1.77 million metric tons, an 11% drop from the current season, while Ghana's output is expected to fall 10% to 585,000 metric tons.
According to StoneX, the revised forecast reflects a stronger assessment of the risks posed by El Niño, with weather models pointing to an increasing likelihood of a significant event.
The broker noted that previous El Niño episodes have disrupted global cocoa production, particularly in West Africa, where adverse weather conditions can reduce yields. Reports of below-average cocoa pod development in key producing areas have further strengthened concerns over next season's harvest.
StoneX had previously projected a surplus of 149,000 metric tons for the 2026/27 season before revising its outlook.
Outside West Africa, Ecuador is expected to maintain production at 600,000 metric tons, positioning the South American nation to overtake Ghana as the world's second-largest cocoa producer if forecasts are realized. The broker said sustained investment in crop management is likely to help Ecuador withstand potential weather-related disruptions linked to El Niño.
Global cocoa production is projected to decline 6% to 4.83 million metric tons, while demand is expected to increase 2% to 4.75 million metric tons, significantly tightening the global supply-demand balance.
Key 2026/27 Cocoa Production Forecast
| Country | Production (Metric Tons) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| IvOry Coast | 1.775 million | -11.3% |
| Ghana | 585,000 | -10.0% |
| Ecuador | 600,000 | 0.0% |
| Cameroon | 290,000 | -3.3% |
| Nigeria | 335,000 | -5.6% |
| Brazil | 210,000 | -2.3% |
| Peru | 205,000 | +5.1% |
| Indonesia | 230,000 | +4.5% |
Source: Reuters,
Reporter:Marcelo Teixeira
Editing: Aurora Ellis