By Ukumbi Afrika Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is expected to remain subdued in 2026 following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, but Shell forecasts robust long-term growth as Asia’s energy transition, industrialisation and expanding digital infrastructure drive demand through 2050.
Global energy company Shell has warned that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could keep global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade largely unchanged in 2026, although the company expects the market to return to growth from 2027 as supply conditions improve.
In its latest Annual LNG Outlook, Shell said the conflict involving Iran and the resulting disruption to one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes temporarily removed around 20% of global monthly LNG supply, significantly affecting international trade flows.
While global LNG trade reached 422 million metric tonnes in 2025, Shell noted that continued shipping disruptions could delay anticipated growth this year if normal maritime operations are not fully restored within the next three months.
Despite the short-term challenges, the company remains optimistic about the sector’s long-term prospects. Shell forecasts that global LNG demand will increase by approximately 65% by 2050, reaching nearly 700 million metric tonnes annually, driven primarily by Asia’s growing energy requirements.
According to the report, rapidly expanding economies across South and Southeast Asia are expected to increase LNG consumption as they seek cleaner alternatives to coal while meeting rising electricity demand from industrial development, urbanisation and the rapid expansion of data centres supporting artificial intelligence (AI).
Cederic Cremers, President of Integrated Gas at Shell, said the recent conflict had created significant disruption across global energy markets but demonstrated the resilience of the LNG industry.
“The conflict created a system-wide shock with disruption cascading across all segments of the economy, but the LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions,” he said.
Shell attributes this resilience to expanding LNG infrastructure, including increased regasification capacity, new liquefaction projects in North America and improved operational performance at existing export facilities. These developments have helped offset supply losses from the Middle East while strengthening the flexibility of global LNG markets.
The report also notes that weaker LNG imports across parts of Asia have helped moderate market pressures. Data from analytics firm Kpler indicates that Asian LNG imports during the first half of 2026 declined by almost 4% compared with the same period last year.
Although LNG spot prices in Asia briefly exceeded US$20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) during the height of the Middle East crisis, prices have since eased to around US$15.35/mmBtu, reflecting improving market confidence and expectations of greater supply stability.
Looking ahead, Shell expects approximately 180 million metric tonnes of new LNG production capacity to come online globally by 2030. However, the company believes additional investment will still be required throughout the 2030s and 2040s, estimating that a further 200 million metric tonnes of annual supply will be needed to meet projected global demand.
The report highlights South and Southeast Asia as the fastest-growing LNG markets, forecasting that the region will account for approximately 40% of global LNG imports by 2050. Declining domestic gas production across emerging Asian economies is expected to further increase reliance on imported LNG.
Meanwhile, Europe is expected to continue relying on LNG to strengthen energy security and complement renewable energy generation as domestic natural gas production continues to decline.
Why It Matters
Shell’s outlook reinforces LNG’s growing role in the global energy transition despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. For Africa, the forecast presents significant opportunities for established and emerging gas-producing nations—including Nigeria, Mozambique, Senegal, Mauritania and Tanzania—to expand LNG production and attract investment. At the same time, the report underscores the importance of resilient energy infrastructure and diversified export routes in an increasingly complex global energy landscape.
Source: Reuters
Reporting: Marwa Rashad, Stephanie Kelly and Emily Chow.